EVcast #209: Some Amazing Stories

The Task Force report is pointing out that the volt won't save GM because it is very possible that nothing will save GM.  They are so far in debt (to bond holders etc.) hence the discussion the last few days has been about whether GM could ever emerge from the likely bankruptcy.   So what the task force is saying is that GM does not have the ability to capitalize a new technology and market a product that will not be profitable for years.

We should be happy that the government is not going to be duped by GM.

This is no April Fools news.

Fred

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I agree with the above comment on GM.  However, that doesn't at all mean the Volt will die.  On the contrary, I think GM will go through a pre-packaged bankruptcy and emerge in better shape so that the Volt will be able to prosper.

Also, I've found the retort to anyone that dares mention hydrogen fuel cells . . this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=BLDP&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=fcel+plug

The stocks of all the fuel cell companies have just tanked.  They are dead in the water.

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Holy cow Dag, that stock info is amazing! I had no idea it was that bad for fuel cells at present.

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The Better Place story seems to be true.  To charge at home, you need a special charger and connector.  Here is a little more information about it.

http://planet.betterplace.com/forum/topics/standard-vs-proprietary

 This approach is necessary for better place because they are billing you for each mile driven or each KWH used.

  The more I listen to Mr Agassi, the less comfortable I become with him.  He was telling the following story.

   Imagine you are selling a new super-cell phone and you tell people you need to have 100,000 people purchase the new cell phone before you can turn on the network that supports the phone.  No one will buy the phone.  You have to build the network first.  Better Place is that type of network.  You have to build it first before people purchase EVs.  EVs cannot be sold without the infrastruture.

   Is that just the worst analogy ever?  Comparing a cell phone that cannot be turned on to EVs that can be plugged in to every home in the world.  Yes I know that there are people that don't have access to a plug where they park, but no new company is needed to solve that problem.  Any electrician can install the plug.

   Also, as Mr. Agassi points out himself, there are places like Canada where engine block heaters are common and plugs are widely available.  Why would such a place need new infrastructure.

   If Mr. Agassi hadn't already raised a lot of money, I would completely dismiss this idea.  But I am pretty close to dismissing it now.

   I think I will open up a business in Israel of hacking the better-place cars so that they can be plugged in at home.

Later
John C. Briggs

P.S. They should allow a standard plug to be used and have the car record home much energy has been taken from the standard plug.  Then next time the customer connects to a Better Place plug, have the car give a full report on energy usage.  If need be, give the customer a sur-charge for home charging.

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Gav,

Believe it. Ballard abandoned fuel cells for cars some time ago. Perhaps sometime in the late 21st century after we've developed and deployed nuclear fusion power (not the current uranium 235 fission powered reactors which produce much radioactive waste) we will have so much spare power we can afford to squander it on fuel cells only if we can work out the high cost of the car and the fuel, storage on board the vehicle, fueling infrastructure and, of course, there are no cheaper and better alternatives then I can see them being adopted.

Cheers,

Rick, from the oil capitol of the world, Houston, TX

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John, I think you are right.

As soon I began to understand the biz model he was proposing, I immediately thought "That is never going to work, people will hack the cars."   And I guess you could protect against that by monitoring multiple things (the batterys, amps flowing through, the miles driven, etc.) . . . but hackers could still attack all of them but it would be harder.  

But the bigger thing is the huge mindset of the business model change.  People accepted it for cell phones, but I don't know if they will for cars.  Besides, there is already the carshare/zipcar model . . . it seems he is trying to come up with something between carshare and ownership and I don't think people will like renting cars they own.   The battery lease proposed by Th!nk is already troublesome enough for most people.

And back to the cellphone/car analogy . . . you own your cellphone, but you pay for usage of their network.  But with electric cars, it is the battery not the charging infrastructure that is the expensive part (as you pointed out) which is hard to get past.  Th!nk's battery lease fee makes more sense.

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Damn.  I was hoping that GM story was an April fool's joke. :-(

I wish the rest of could see the numbers on the Volt.  I do expect it to be expensive initially, but the with tax-credit, it should be a viable product that will make money eventually.   They really need to keep it as aero-dynamic and light-weight as possible.  Batteries are just still too expensive to power thousands of pounds of steel at a reasonable cost.

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Dag:

Steel is expensive to move but cheap to produce...you expecting americans to think long term?  (I should take my own advice) Check that, Americans will start thinking long term and buy smartly designed vehicles like the aptera...as long as they don't get blow off the highway.

There is something about this video.  You would think they don't have drive past a trucker to see if it gets blown around. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fb6UlG2TP00  "Breaker Breaker I am still here"

Fred

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