EVcast #309 2010: A Rant Over NRC PHEV Report

Joe--

Good to see you doing some more podcasts again, but I'd like to see you do more interviews, too.

Re: your comments today (episode 309): I wish there was some way to make people accountable for wildly inaccurate comments that are capable of affecting voting in Washington, funding for projects, etc.  I'd like to see such individuals lose their jobs in these instances, or in the case of the NRC and others, that their agencies may even be disbanded since they no longer provide public benefit.

Battery range: IBM, Arizona State University, and the University of St. Andrews (Scotland) are only a few that have claimed to have technologies that have lithium- air batteries that will be able to replace the cathode of the battery with atmospheric oxygen, thereby reducing the weight, expense, and size of the batteries we have today.

Air battery designs may soon be able to increase battery energy density by a factor of as much as 11 over today's lithium ion batteries.  So if a Tesla can get 313 miles to a charge, it is conceivable that before long, we may have EVs that can drive all the way across the country on a single charge.

That is only one of the technologies that may give us dramatic performance increases-- the use of carbon nanotubes has been shown by several companies and universities to reduce the internal resistance and weight of batteries, and increase the speed at which EVs can be charged, making them as practical to drive cross-country as cars are today.  These companies have indicated energy gains of 8 to 10 times. And if both of these technologies are combined-- air batteries with CNT-coated anodes-- is it possible that the 10 times we can gain with carbon nanotubes can be multiplied by the 11 times increase of an air battery design?!  That would be an increase of 1100 times!  I know it's outrageously optimistic, but I suspect that the EVs we drive 15 years from now may have battery packs no bigger than the ICE starter batteries we have today.

if we do eventually have batteries with such immense energy density, it's unlikely that we'll be going into the showroom to buy cars with ranges that can be measured in the thousands of miles-- it's more likely that maximum range will continue to be around 250- 300 miles, and that manufacturers will opt to use much smaller, lighter battery packs that can suffice with much smaller motors, controllers and other components, dramatically reducing the purchase price of such vehicles as well as reducing the operating costs.  The real barrier to EV acceptance is battery cost and availability of materials (lithium, neodymium, etc.), so if China, Bolivia and other source countries don't try to get extraordinarily greedy in such matters, it seems reasonable to me that ICEs will fall into steep disfavor within 8 years or so.

http://www.bing.com/search?FORM=IEFM1&q=st+andrews+air+battery

http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/23877/?a=f

http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/22780/

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Ecolocap-Solutions-Inc-OTC-Bulletin-Board-ECOS-1051419.html

Oh... I told you I'd gotten my BMW EV conversion running several months ago... it's burning rubber in a You Tube video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbCpFHJ7GJs

I still have not got it painted and cherried out, but I'll forward pix as soon as they're available.

My cousin, Jeff, in Alton, Illinois, converted a similar BMW to full battery power with the same powerful motor I used, but he is using Optima batteries and a Curtis controller.  The batteries are some I just bought to use in a solar storage system for a house I have in Southern Illinois, but Jeff will be using them to test his car. The batteries just arrived today, but the snow is so deep he may not be able to drive the EV for weeks.  He did a spectacular job with the assistance of Mike Schuenke, who is a very talented CNC programmer/ operator in Southern Illinois.  As soon as he has pictures online of his EV conversion, I'll let you know.

Jeff is a member of the Gateway EV Club in St. Louis, where they got their first looks at two real, live Tesla Roadsters at last Sunday's meeting.  Jeff is starting up a company called Eco-Volt, which is the license plate of his EV.  Jeff and I plan to tour the country with our two EVs in a few months, exhibiting at drag strips, car shows, green events, etc.  We're really looking forward to it.

If all goes well, Electric Louie and I will be going into production in the next two weeks or so, on what we hope is the best BMS (Battery Management System) available anywhere yet... we need to do some real-world tests, of course... stay posted.  Louie is also near production on some other spectacular products as well.

Bill

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Great analysis Joe, thanks for the time you put in on this bogus NRC report on electric vehicles.

Since the oil industry infrastructure (centralized fuel production facilities, fuel transport, fuel stations, etc.) would remain in place in a hydrogen-based system; I'm convinced that the oil lobby influenced the NRC report.

The oil industry could just transition to hydrogen production and maintain their position as a multi-billion dollar industry.

Unfortuneately, the familiarity of the system will attract many people - after all; we used to just pulling into a fuel station and filling up.

Having said that - I'm also sure that the process of switching the large underground gasoline tanks at gas stations to hydrogen tanks, will be a monumental project; much more complicated and expensive than transitioning to electric charging stations.

One thing I would like to add concerning the falling prices of batteries; soon we will be importing lithium from our American friends and neighbors in Chile and Argentina - some of the worlds' richest lithium deposits. The availability and proximity of lithium, and our positive diplomatic ties with our neighbors, can only accelerate the mass mining and production of lithium, driving the costs down quickly.

I predict that we will soon be driving our EV's to automobile museums to check out the unsuccessful attempts at producing hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.

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Here Joe . . . let me help you debunk that report with a single graph from that report . . . Figure 4.9

Basically, it says that gas will cost $4/gallon . . . IN 2050!  WTF?  I paid $4/gallon LAST YEAR.  According to that graph, I'm living in the 2020s right now!  Wheee, EVs caused time travel!

$4/gallon gas in 2050 . . . can ANYONE take such an assumption seriously?  No.  It is ridiculous.

So between a massive understatement of gas prices ($4/gallon in 2050!) and a big overstatement of battery pack prices ($14,000 for PHEV-40 pack AKA Chevy Volt pack), that report is complete garbage.  People should call up the committee members and ask them what they think gas will cost in 2050 and see what they think.  I bet they'd all agree $4/gallon is a really REALLY bad assumption.

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