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May 2010 Posts
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[1:04:00] Join Bo and Ryan for a look at this week's EV news. Plus, a special segment from Lance Armstrong and then one from Bo Bennett.
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Hi Bo, I was also looking forward to my Leaf, and then I make some figures, and quit the idea.Fist of all, I would have to about $32,000+ put up-front. With that money I could buy 2 entry level ICE cars.Then, after 5 or so years, I would have to buy another battery pack = $20,000 / 60 months = $333 every month for the replacement costs alone. I would rather have a loaded Mercedes or BMW for the money and travel wherever I want without any range anxiety.I think 99% of car buyers would follow me on that.Roberto
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Yes, you would need 32k "up front", but do not discount the $7500 plus state incentives you would get back the following year. Also, do not confuse an entry level car with the LEAF. Although not considered a luxury car, the LEAF in well in line with ICE cars in the same price range. As for the battery pack, although Nissan did not release warranty info, it will most likely be in line with the GM VOLT - 10 years, at which time the expected battery replacement cost would be no more than the sum total of the maintenance and repairs needed for an ICE of 10 years.
As for the public perception and range anxiety issues, I do agree that very few people can work out the math and logic as I have above. The EV will not catch on over night, but it will catch on.
Wow, Bo! You are doin' me proud. Does it frighten you to hear comments that sound like they came from me? Excellent response!
> I think 99% of car buyers would follow me on that.
What I find interesting is how many people think that "99%" of other people will think just like they do. If 99% of us think of nothing but what's in it for us in the short term... or how do I save the most money at the expense of our long-term interests - we're screwed.
Hi Bo, I enjoyed your Nissan Leaf video promo. You have a great sense of humor. :-) The long waiting list for the Leaf proves there is a valid consumer market for 100% electric cars in spite of any range limitations. I think you'll appreciate my comment back to Roberto...
Roberto, before you go spending your money on a new Mercedes or BMW, you may want to check out the CNN SIU special show "We Were Warned: Out of Gas" which originally aired back in June 2007. Given what's happening right now in the Gulf with the BP oil spill, the potential scenario they discussed is more valid than ever. In a very few years, you may not really want that gas guzzler after all. I hope CNN rebroadcasts this episode soon; it's certainly timely.
Hmmm- what does Toyota get with Tesla? At the very least, they get some instant green cred in the EV space (as Ryan mentioned) with some recognition cache because of the Roadster. Beyond that- maybe a buyout of Tesla?
I gotta agree with Ryan on Chinese products- do not trust their goods- they cut corners and have no oversight. Additionally, I have a problem sending dollars to a totalitarian regime.
I will miss Mr. Lutz as well- Bob really was fun to listen to!
Mira EV from Japanese Electriv Vehicle club goes 1000 KM- had a 74 KW hour Battery pack as per AutoBlog Green:http://green.autoblog.com/2010/05/24/japan-ev-club-drives-623-miles-on-a-single-charge/
And remember- a Xenophobe caught in a Centrifugal orbit around a mythological natural satellite is bound to take a Centripetal path and crash into the BYD building in Los Angeles! (okay- YOU try putting all 3 words into one sentence!)
'Not' and 'Never' are awfully big words, Roberto- and they will come down in price- already are. Until they are ubiquitous enought to warrant the building of fast-charge stations, an EREV like the Volt will do for most, and even a pure BEV for others will meet the needs of most 2nd and 3rd cars in families. As to 'affordable,' it depends on what you mean. Yes EVs have, for now, a higher up-front cost- but some of this, even now, will be returned in the form of cheaper fuel and lower maintenance costs. And long term? How do you calculate the costs of sending so much of our wealth oversears for oil which is draining our economy- along with the wild fluctuations of oil that, like it did last year, help to bring about economic turmoil? How do you calculate the costs of our 'police actions' to maintain our supply of oil? And perhaps worse, how do you calcualte the health costs associated with poluting the air we breath- multiple studies point to increasing air polution in our cities as the cause for increased pulmonary disease. None of these costs are 'paid at the pump,' but are still costs we bear the burden of, in the form of jobs, taxes and rising health insurance.
Of course, you can take the short view of all this, and continue to save money with our 'drill, baby, drill' mentality- or you can take the long view that will save us, and our children, and our grandchildren, money, security and health over the long run.
'Not' and 'Never' are awfully big words, Roberto- and they will come down in price- already are. And until they are ubiquitous enough to warrant the building of fast-charge stations, an EREV like the Volt will do for most, and even a pure BEV for others will meet the needs of most 2nd and 3rd cars in families. As to 'affordable,' it depends on what you mean. Yes EVs have, for now, a higher up-front cost- but some of this, even now, will be returned in the form of cheaper fuel and lower maintenance costs. And long term? How do you calculate the costs of sending so much of our wealth oversears for oil which is draining our economy- along with the wild fluctuations of oil that, like it did last year, help to bring about economic turmoil? How do you calculate the costs of our 'police actions' to maintain our supply of oil? And perhaps worse, how do you calcualte the health costs associated with poluting the air we breath- multiple studies point to increasing air polution in our cities as the cause for increased pulmonary disease. None of these costs are 'paid at the pump,' but are still costs we bear the burden of, in the form of jobs, taxes and rising health insurance.
Roberto wrote: >Back in 2000 I've bought two brand new Japanese cars to my two sons for $22,000. They were both auto w/power brakes, steering, locks, A/C, CD players, and all they have spent so far was scheduled oil changes of course, and some brake pads, tires, washer fluids and that's all. Both cars are running perfectly, each with a little over 100K miles on and with a good resale value. When do you think EV automakers could compete with that? Not mentioning range independence and other amenities that comes with a century old infrastructure<
A few questions back for you: Just so I'm clear: Those two wonderful cars didn't need any tuneups or gasoline in all those years? My EVs haven't. They run on sunshine. Zero maintenance bill and zero fuel bill for more than 100,000 miles now.
Did you spend anything on health insurance in any of that time? Spend any taxes that support military protection of "our" oil? Should our choices be only about what something costs us at checkout, or what that choice does to our world? Have you heard of Deepwater? - Darell
Here is what EVCarCo is doing with their marketing dollars now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmNZAiJ9ag0
Roberto's comment:
I was also looking forward to my Leaf, and then I make some figures, and quit the idea.Fist of all, I would have to about $32,000+ put up-front. With that money I could buy 2 entry level ICE cars.Then, after 5 or so years, I would have to buy another battery pack = $20,000 / 60 months = $333 every month for the replacement costs alone. I would rather have a loaded Mercedes or BMW for the money and travel wherever I want without any range anxiety.I think 99% of car buyers would follow me on that.
Roberto:
You're going through life with blinders on, and the problem with blinders is that sometime, at some intersection, you're not gonna see that massive SUV about to bulldoze through the red light, and you're gonna be TOAST.
You mention seeing videos of EVs back in the '70s... yeah, I do too... and back then, gasoline was only 25 cents a gallon (doubling overnight with the OPEC oil embargo). Gasoline is more than ten times that price now. How much longer can you sustain such price increases before you finally wake up and say, wow, we're squandering what little oil we have when we should be using renewable resources?
If you are somehow so delusional as to think that gasoline has stabilized at three dollars a gallon, remember that in was over $4/ gal before our economic collapse (which, as you'll recall, was partly caused by those same steep gasoline prices). Realize that the gasoline we bought 30 years ago was made with oil that was easy to get at... we were snacking on low-hanging fruit... it has been many years since there was any oil that was easy and cheap to suck out of the earth. That's why we have the current problem in the Gulf, that has spoiled hundreds of miles of coast land, and wiped out their fishing, oyster and tourism industries for years to come... they still can't be sure if they'll be able to cap that gusher two months from now, and you somehow think we have a stable supply of oil at $3. a gallon?!? Pulllllllllleeeze!!!!
You mention spending money on wiper fluid and other simple stuff on your ICE cars... you conveniently left out several expenses: you never had to spend hours waiting to pay the best part of a hundred bucks being tested at a smog station? Never got any tune-ups in all those years? No air filters, fan belts, transmission service? Brake jobs that EVs don't need because of their regenerative braking? No transmission rebuilds or clutch service that EVs don't need? You obviously are not keen on the real differences between EVs and ICE cars, so maybe you should avoid further embarrassing yourself until you at least get up to speed on such issues.
We all know you needed the things I mention above, and if you're conveniently forgetting all those obvious things costing several hundred dollars, no doubt you're forgetting to mention a few other incidentals as well.
I bet you buy ARCO and other cheap gases because you just look at the short term, never looking at...
http://www.toptiergas.com/
... to see why it's penny wise, pound foolish to buy cheap gas, and you had to spend hundreds of dollars you conveniently forgot to mention on oxygen sensors, catalytic converters, valve jobs, and fuel injectors because of their junky, terrible fuel, rather than spending a little more cash on a higher quality gas that won't ruin your engine and the air we breathe.
If you're old enough to remember the OPEC embargo of the '70s and didn't learn anything from it, maybe you just might remember microwave ovens from that era. The first ones were simple boxes with no bells and whistles, that burned some of the food while parts of the same meal were still ice cold. Those early iterations of microwaves cost as much as $4,000... recently I noticed Home Depot had a full-featured, large, 1500 watt microwave for only $50. That's called economies of scale: it happens when you make something in small numbers and sell it for lots of money; rich people are the "early adopters", buying them just because they have money to burn. The prices drop a little, the manufacturers pay off their tooling costs and prices drop some more, and then prices take a true nosedive. In a few years, bingo, stuff is somehow affordable for even low-income households. A couple of years ago, I saw a pair of matching digital watches-- one for a man, one for a woman-- on sale at the 99 cent store. Sure, they LOOKED cheap, but they were multifunction, and far better than the huge, heavy, clunky Seikos that started out selling for $1009. in 1971. Don't expect any kind of batteries for EVs to stay expensive for very long.
Lithium is currently relatively expensive, but that's because we've been buying all of it from China, who has been taking advantage of their near monopoly. Large lithium deposits have been found in South America and elsewhere, and that will keep China from being such hard asses for much longer. Prices will drop, and "lithium air" batteries that have 10 times the energy density will likely be on the market by the time the batteries we have today need to be replaced... and when a lithium battery wears out, it can be recycled-- can you do that with gasoline? Once you burn it, you need to find a source for some more, and quickly. Lithium is expensive (now), but it only needs to be bought once or maybe twice for any given EV.
You obviously have never had an EV, otherwise you would not be making some of the statements you have (yes, I do have an EV, as well as a Prius, so I actually KNOW what I'm talking about. I have a BMW I converted to an EV that you can see burning rubber on YouTube). EVs don't need transmissions at all... if you elect to use one, it's just because you want to show off, or for extra torque up hills, etc., and not because you really need it. And EVs never need reverse gears-- just make the motor turn backwards when you want to back up.
EVs do not need to idle, so they do not need clutches as your ICE cars do, so they never have to have clutches replaced, whether in stick or automatic transmissions.
Evs have regenerative braking, so they rarely if ever need to replace brake pads, shoes, disks, rotors or brake fluids. Unlike ICE cars, EV brakes are used much less and so can operate at very low temperatures, so even their fluids last much longer.
How many moving parts are in your ICE car's engine, Roberto? If it's just a humble 4-banger, it's still in the hundreds. And it's how much metal-to-metal contact that in part determines how long you can drive it before those parts need to be replaced. Did you realize that there are hundreds of square inches of oil-lubed metal-to-metal contact just in your pistons and cylinders? How much of your precious gasoline do you think with all that high-speed friction?
How much metal-to-metal contact do you have in an EV's electric motor? They have two small, robust bearings, and in some cases, maybe a couple of pairs of carbon brushes that might need to be replaced after 70,000 miles or so... cost: maybe $70. for the brushes... the bearings will probably outlast the car. In case you haven't been keeping score, there is nearly no maintenance to an EV, even simple stuff... and only a single, quiet, very reliable part in the entire drive train of a typical EV. (Some highway-capable EVs have even been designed with no moving parts at all other than their wheels-- the motors are integral with the wheels. As the technology matures, that may become the norm for EVs.)
The City of Santa Monica bought a bunch of RAV-4s for their fleet more than a dozen years ago. Aside from tires and wiper blades, they've spent almost nothing on their EVs-- even the batteries have lasted more than 100,000 miles, and those batteries show no signs of weakening yet. (They never fully deplete the batteries, and don't fully charge them, either... they keep the charge level in a "sweet spot" in the middle. We've started to see that there are ways to extend the life of our batteries dramatically. The batteries I use-- lithium iron phosphate-- have not been around long enough to know if they also follow a similar pattern, but I'll know in a few years. BTW... just since I bought my batteries, they have dropped in price more than 50%.) Oh, BTW... they don't even buy their electricity for their cars-- the city has a canopy for their EVs to park under. The canopy is covered with solar panels that charge their EVs.
Are you familiar with the principle of "Peak Oil"? Read up on it before you get too cozy with your gas guzzlers, and want to keep driving them as if there is no tomorrow, because, in fact, there is no tomorrow for that kind of car unless you'll be willing to pay a fortune for what fuel you can find. Note: OPEC is a big club of sorts, and the way the club works is that if you have most of the world's supply of oil, you're allowed to sell more of it on the open market. The ones that have less oil in reserve is restricted from selling as much, cutting back on sales to artificially inflate gasoline prices. The problem with that is, that none of the OPEC countries allows anyone to audit their oil reserves to see if they really have as much as they say they do, and that makes OPEC a Liars' Club: whoever lies the biggest gets to sell the most oil... hence, everyone is in the illusion that there is much more oil in reserve than there really is. Your precious oil is getting very scarce, very soon-- and then what will you do?
If gasoline suddenly becomes as scarce as a GM EV-1, it'll be chaos, of course-- but those of us with the foresight to drive electric won't need to be riding skateboards and bicycles like you will. The sun and wind, as unpredictable as they may be, will always be around to charge some batteries for me. I won't need gasoline or the grid.
Tough to be on the bleeding edge.
I have always been a fan of the TRIAC. Randy Bopp has one and blogs about it.
http://mytriacrocks.blogspot.com/
Looks like he sent it back for some "upgrades" in March and still has not received it back. He actually had to go out and buy a used ICE car to fill his immediate needs.
I wonder how this stuff works. You pay $20,000 for a car and you lose 3 months of service because it is in being "upgraded". If you assume the car will last 10 years, the capital is be expanded at $166/month. So does that mean someone should pay him $500 for the loss of use of the vehicle?
John C. Briggs
