http://www.wired.com/cars/futuretransport/magazine/16-09/ff_agassi

In this month's Wired Magazine, which I received today (8/20/2008) there is a lengthy article about Project Better Place (Now called simply Better Place).

The general idea is to treat cars more like cellphones. The phones (cars) are given away or greatly discounted, but you pay for the minutes (KWH of electricity). The cars are recharged from special charging stations that bill your account.

On the impressive side, the lead guy (Agassi) has gotten US$200M in funding to develop this in Israel and another US$160M in funding to develop it in Denmark. He has a relationship with Nissan/Renault and apparently they will build the cars.

On the downside, the article is completely UNCRITICAL of the approach. There is no discussion of the cars, battery types, range, cold weather performance, or any specifications of the car at all. The article looks to be written by a fan of Mr. Agassi not by a reporter.

If he didn't have all this money and support of the Israeli governemnt behind him, Mr Agassi would seem like a complete lunatic. As Bo says "We shall see."

    Looks like a typo. Agassi reeled in 200 million not 200 thousand. I think this plan has the best chance of succeeding because it brings the electric car to the common person. Most people cannot afford the upfront cost of current battery technology. Most people could not even afford a car without financing. Any time you can take such a large sum and break it down over time, it will help bring it to the masses. If Agassi can bring Better Place to the common man he will succeed.

     Better place has begun installations in Israel, has deals with Denmark, Australia,The Bay Area, and Toronto Ontario. Once NY sees what is happening with Toronto and California it will soon follow suit. That would create aperfect opportunity to put together a Toronto-New York corrodor, an electric highway if you will. I applaud Shai Agassi for his efforts and will be one of the first to adopt his program when it reaches me. Please check out betterplace.com and watch the videos posted.

PS-I'm just a guy from Buffalo NY who thinks this is a great idea. I have no affiliation with Better Place

krytster,
   Thanks for the correction on the money raised. This is indeed very impressive.

    I still don't understand the whole Better Place concept. Let's start with the charging stations.

    So when I am at home (in the suburbs), I will want to connect to my standard 110V outlet. For this I do not need Better Place's help. Then when I go to work, there is very little chance of having a charging station near my work. So they cannot help me there. If I go to the mall, I guess that would be a reasonable place to top-up the battery. They high concentration of people makes it a good choice for a charging station. On the other hand, if the car has a reasonable driving range (100 miles), I don't need Better Place at my mall either.

   Let's talk about the battery swapping stations. Do I have to drive 100 miles and then swap batteries to go another 100 miles? Presumably I would want to play it safe and swap every 75 miles. So if I need to go 300 miles, that would be three swaps along the way whereas a gas car would need zero stops. This seems impractical.

    The E-REV concept seems to provide all the answers to these problems. Firstly, the car will likely be cheaper because it only needs a 16KWH battery pack (like the Chevy Volt) versus say a 29KWH battery pack (like the RAV4-EV). OK you have to pay for a gas engine on the E-REV as well, but gas engines are relatively cheap. For the sake of argument, let's say the E-REV and a 100mile range EV are the same price. Which makes more sense?

     Now for most commuting, I don't need a charging station or a battery swapping station. I can just plug into my garage outlet when I am at home. Oh, and for those long trips, it is back to gasoline, so no need to investing in battery swapping technology.

      The idea that Better Place can magically make the cost of a 29KWH battery pack affordable to the consumer is sort of silly. The pack will be expensive and the cost has to be passed to the consumer in some way. Whether you lease the battery or lease the whole car, you will have to pay for it. If the technology is expensive, you will have to pay more for it. E-REVs have the potential of lower costs due to the smaller batteries. With pure EVs, you will always want a larger battery. For the E-REV, you can consider an even smaller battery (perhaps 12KWH is enough for most commuting).

   The way I see it, Israel could have better spent their US$200M on 6000 Chevy Volts. Or better yet, covered half the cost of 12,000 Chevy Volts to make them affordable to their owners rather than free.

Hey John,

   Some great points. According to what I've seen on the Better Place site, they will be able to offer their "cell phone like" plans for about $1.50 a gallon equivalent. The USA provides some additional challenges for their plan, but I am hopeful all will be worked out. As with ALL these new technologies a little hope is necessary. Since Better Place has begun installations I have been gaining faith in their product.

    I have heard terms thrown around their website like Smartcharger which would be installed at your home and workplaces. These smartchargers could also be put in mall and other shopping areas. From what I understand the chargers would be metered, but this doesn't fall in line with their other monthly payment plan. Unless monthly subscribers would charge for free. Of course there are still questions with Better Place but I look forward to seeing everything unfold.

Steve

Steve,
    I am still waiting for the "Ah Ha" moment when the Better Place idea makes sense to me. Obviously a lot of bright people have bought into the idea. But I don't understand it.

     The idea of $1.50/gallon equivalent, gives a starting point for discussion at least. Let's think about this for a moment. Consider the following assumptions.

12000 miles/year

$1.50/gallon

   25 miles/gallon

480 gallons/year

$720/year paid to Better Place.

If the battery pack costs $10,000 it would take 13 years for Better Place to payback the cost of the battery. So far we have heard Tesla saying their pack is $30,000 now but will be cheaper in the future. So I think $10,000 is a reasonable number.

   So Better Place cannot payback the battery to begin with. Also, they need to pay for the electricity and all the charging infrastructure. It cannot work this way.

   Oh, and if you drive less than 12,000 miles/year, Better Place is in even worse shape.

     Let's compare with the cell phone model. You sign up for a 2 year contract for $50 per month, and they give you a "free" $200 value phone.. At the end of 2 years, you have paid the cell phone company $1200 and received a $200 phone (which is now at the end of life). This math works.

    Here is the comparison

     Cell phone payback    4 months

     EV battery payback   13 years.

    Please, someone tell me what I am missing.

Thanks

John C. Briggs

John,

    I can't find any holes in your logic except that we don't know all the numbers. Your numbers seem perfectly logical, so unless there is some miracle we probably won't be seeing anything from Better Place.

    Shai Agassi is playing with fraud if the numbers don't work. He has convinced a lot of government officials that his plan will be fruitful. I don't see anyone getting away with that. While I still hope Better Place will be successful, I do not want anyone getting away with false claims.

    I will always remain skeptical and if the evidence does not support a claim I am prepared to to change my mind. I hope that everyone will keep their minds open, but not so open that your brains fall out.

Steve

Below is what I found this on BP's website. I will continue to look for answers to the question: How will Better Place work? It seems that they will use the Playstation 3 model. It won't be profitable for a couple of years. The blu-ray part of Sony's PS3 made the unit unprofitable till pretty much now. They continued to tweek the specs lowering costs, all while waiting for prices to drop on the laser unit. As we know prices did drop and the PS3 is now turning a profit. I don't know if this explains the whole cost of the pack issue, but I hope it gets BP closer to producing a viable product. I also found on a few websites that the cost of a battery pack will drop to $200 per kwh once they start producing them in large enough numbers. Sorry about the bold print.

This was taken from Better Place's website

How much cheaper is electric than petrol per mile/kilometer?

The cost of electricity per mile/kilometer is largely driven by the cost of the battery pack. The debate has long been around the number miles/kilometers a battery pack can last. Better Place expects the costs of the battery packs to come down significantly as economies of scale are realized. One of the key advantages for electric drive is the predictable cost for the entire generation-to-wheel on electric drive. The cost is known up front, on the day the car is bought, and the price will decrease from there. ICE cars, on the other hand, are dependent on a natural resource that is being rapidly depleted and is getting more expensive every day.

Steve

Steve,
   You have some good points here.

   I am familiar with forward pricing (like the playstation), but generally companies are pretty close to profitability at the start. I don't know how true that will be with Better Place.

    As far as the quote goes, I am a little mystified by the comment, " The cost is known up front, on the day the car is bought, and the price will decrease from there."   Is he suggesting that electricity prices will go down in the future? I suspect they will go up. He seems to assume gasoline prices will go up but electricity will go down. Perhaps I missed his point.

   For me, I have solar panels, so my electricity is pre-paid for the next 25 years or so (I hope). But if I got an electric car, I would need more panels (perhaps US$20,000).

   Well we can keep watching Better Place and see what happens. Honestly, I wish him well, I just have questions.

Later

John C. Briggs

I found a video link on BP's site where George Stroumboulopoulos asks Shai some of the questions we all want to know. I hope the link works.

http://www.cbc.ca/thehour/videos.html?id=1006288241

Steve

Steve,
    Thanks for the link.

    Unfortunately he just makes claims without supporting them.   The idea that EVs are "...cheaper than gasoline..." just does not make sense with what we know.

    He confirms the $10,000 price for the battery. Over the passage of 10 years, the battery alone would cost more than the gasoline that most of us use in our cars in that time frame. Perhaps if gasoline goes to $10 or $12 per gallon that will change.

     In addition to paying for the battery, we must consider the cost of electricity, and the charging stations (both home and away) and the battery switching stations. I don't see the economics working unless either 1) battery prices come way down or 2) gasoline prices go way up.

     That said, there are other reasons for wanting to have EVs. I have solar panels on my house and I can assure you that it is not primarily for economic reasons.   EVs will have to be the same. But we should be honest about it.

      What I think is funny is that Mr Agassi drives and EV right now without needing any charging station or battery switching stations. Makes you wonder if Better Place is needed.

Thanks
John C. Briggs

John,

   Let me commend you on the PV's. Hopefully they will last longer than all estimates. I, on the other hand have no southern facing roof or much sun to speak of. We sure have had a lot of wind in the last few years though. I might as well use global warming to my advantage. Way off topic but here is a link to a cool wind power site. $3 per watt, 4 year payback,and user serviceable.

http://www.motorwavegroup.com/new/motorwind/index.html

As for Bp, It sure is looking like I'll have to convert my Yaris to an EV. If I could just find some hub motors I could put them on the rear and still have the gas engine run the front wheels. Sure would be heavy though, even if I only need a twelve mile range. Maybe i'll just get one of those over unity generators to perpetually run my electric motor. I guess I could just ride my Bike.

Yes, I'm one of those weirdos who ride a recumbent.

Steve,
     The PV is a cool "feel-good" thing at my house. We are blessed with a 1950's ranch with 16'x52' rear roof that faces south. Of course, being that it is winter, there is not much electricity coming from the panels now. But in the summer, we actually had 6 months of $0 electric bills. Conservation was the key.

     I really should ride a bike to work. The commute is only 10 miles. But I don't see myself doing it. I would really like to have an EV if it doesn't break the bank.

     Funny you should mention the Yaris. I was talking to a fellow EV Cast listener yesterday. He was looking into buying an Electric Yaris from Hybrid Technologies.

http://www.hybridtechnologies.com/071119

It is $40K, so I know I will not be getting one. Hmmm, I guess you could get $7500 tax credit so it is a little more affordable. But still out of my range.

Later
John C. Briggs

Keep in mind John that the $7500 tax credit does not apply to conversions, which Hybrid Technologies cars fall under.

You want an brand new Yaris EV for about $20k? See http://www.electricbluemotors.com/AboutCars/About/About.html

I met these guys at the show in Santa Monica. There are a real mom and pop shop which could be a good or bad thing. But you are still paying a $10k premium for the conversion to Lead Acid batteries. As you know, it does not make economical sense, but if you buy this car you will not be killing as many polar bears.

Bo,

    Thanks for the input. I forgot that the $7500 does not apply to conversions. I wonder what the government's thinking is that let them to set it up this way.

    I wonder if the tax credit applied to the EV Yaris, if the price would suddenly jump from $40,000 to $47,500.

    The $20,000 Yaris sounds interesting, but I assume that means replacing the lead-acid batteries every 2-4 years at a cost of thousands of dollars. I don't know if it is worth it.

    I think Gav said he spent like $12,000 to do his conversion by himself. These EVs are just too expensive. But I really like the technology, particularly for city commuting.

Thanks
John C. Briggs

Bo,
   I was reading the EMERGENCY ECONOMIC STABILIZATION act, Sec. 205 Plug-in Electric Drive Motor Vehicles and it is as clear as mud.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/01/news/pdf/index.htm

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(c) NEW QUALIFIED PLUG-IN ELECTRIC DRIVE

MOTOR VEHICLE.—For purposes of this section, the term new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle’ means a motor vehicle—

(1) which draws propulsion using a traction bttery with at least 4 kilowatt hours of capacity,

(2) which uses an offboard source of energy to rcharge such battery,

(3) (air quality stuff)

(4) the original use of which commences with

the taxpayer,

(5) which is acquired for use or lease by the taxpayer and not for resale, and

(6) which is made by a manufacturer.

So this is clearly for NEW vehicles (section 4). Also, "made by a manufacturer" would clearly eliminate home conversions. However, I wonder if Hybrid Technologies is a "manufacturer". After all, both Tesla and Hybrid technologies get the basic car from someone else (Lotus and Toyota, respectively). So what is the difference? I think "made by a manufacturer" is a little unclear. I wonder if the lawyers have the answer.

Later

John C. Briggs

Hi John,

I believe the definition of "manufacturer", for this purpose anyhow, would be that you have a VIN code assigned to your company; ie, I think the first few digits in a VIN indicate the mfg'r.

I doubt electricblue would have their own, as they would have to replace the Toyota VIN plate. A practice which is frowned upon ;) and probably opens a restaurant-sized can of worms.

I may be totally wrong on this, but that's how I read it.

Ross

Not hot on the better place concept - what I could see is having a rechargeable Battery pack that you do not touch and use recycleable aluminum-air batteries as range extenders - they are primary batteries but have energy densities of 1300-2000 wh/Kg- you'd buy them and pay a deposit which you'd get back when you return them or exchange them- when depleted they would be recycled - for this plan to work you'd need a gps planning system that could work out where and when would be best to swap out.

Stockwell has an interesting thought, and I'd like to hear more about aluminum-air batteries. But what bothers me about the Better Place plan is that it seems to focus on urban environments (and city contracts), and does nothing to reduce vehicle density or promote public transport. All the other environmental drawback (pavement congestion, parking issues, etc.) remain. Charging networks will really be needed in suburban areas with apartment complexes and industrial parks.

I thought you all may be interested to know that Shai Agassi was on the CBC TV program 'The Hour' a few days ago. It is quite a popular national program up here in Canada and is aimed at the younger viewer market. Here is a link to the interview.

http://www.cbc.ca/thehour/videos.html?id=1006288241

So, Agassi spoke at Victoria's State of Design festival (cf: http://FORA.TV for MP4 & MP3)... and took questions not unlike some of those we see here.

That talk was Australia-specific, eg, appealing to investors to create battery plants (so AU could value-add to its huge exports of lithium, iron & phosphate).

Here are some of the points made in that talk:

1. subtle income stream: Battery swap stations are also electricity market day-traders (buy cheap, store & sell some back when demand & prices peak)

2. they may also be able to do deals with power generators (who'd save a bit by not needing to add capacity or to burn as much coal, with point 1 benefits)

3. at least at start-up, they'll let others invest in charge-points (little cost)

4. there's a political side to this: we'd stop importing oil from the Middle East

5. with more end-users generating electricity at home & on-farms near cities, they might buy-into the "energy independence" of home charging

6. of course, the thouight of "nearly free" cars has an appeal

On the other hand, people in congested cities are rightly concerned about finding car-parks & traffic jams (at least EVs do better, in jams, to save energy & reduce pollution).

(I understand that Adelaide has a full-size, air-conditioned electric bus (from NZ) - providing free CBD transport - so, that may be an indication of what's (also) ahead for EV applications.)

A company rep's statement (on Renault's web site) leads me to believe that the mobile phone market's use-'em-or-lose-'em model of air-time for a fixed monthly, may explain how they intend to be paid for their cars; it'll feel like leasing to end-users & companies.

So, even at 10% below current leasing costs, both company & end-users will win, since the cars have to be cheaper to make than current ones & running & maintenance costs should be less for end-users.

Maybe Better Place is just thinking long-term (just as the slow-capitalists do)?

Anyway, demand for the overpriced Toyota Prius's continues to stay above the company's ability to supply them (or... did, ie, before recent reports of faults), despite earlier down-sizing, by Toyota, of battery spec's & media reports that Prius's are the most costly [EV] car to maintain.

I'd expect an affordable, 100% electric tol do well in the current market; as other makers start to add alternative cars, Better Place's battery-swapping adds to the convenience, to make their cars highly competitive.

Maybe they'll have a belated income stream, eg, from IP infringement cases, eg, if competitors don't license their swapping IP...? ;-)

(I'd also be surprised if Better Place didn't translate the high consumer demand for EVs into higher buy-in pricing, at least for early-adopters, from introduction.

Later, they'll hopefully live up to promises of "nearly free" cars, as they move down the price pyramid.)

In AU, however, I just don't see much governmental commitment, as yet.

If Aussies push on their "pollies," this could change, & I - for one - hope it does.

Watch out for "I want an EV, & I vote" bumber stickers, down under... ;-)

Andrew, did you find that this link took ages to load? I gave up and I have a fairly fast ADSL system.